Tonight I am in Hong Kong because next week I start a new day job which will involve some travel between Hong Kong and Singapore. So to keep up with my trades and blogs, I decided to invest in a new laptop (Acer Travelmate 2420 for SD$1098!). Unfortunately, this seems to be missing Adobe Pro so I am unable to upload my spreadsheet this week (if anyone knows how to save a worksheet in png format using Excel only or some freeware please feel free to share it with me). Hopefully by about next week I’ll have a copy so you can see all my trades in more detail. In short, my portfolio is up by .029% as opposed to the -1.18% performance of the KLSE since the inception of my portfolio and I am very slightly overweight in cash and looking to take more profits so tomorrow I’ll be getting rid of my TSH shares.
Simple PE Ratio Technique
In my opinion we are going to hit some difficult times ahead so I am getting sensitive to companies which are posting declining quarterlies. By taking the earnings from the most recent 4 quarters it is possible to calculate a PE ratio with its stock price today. Then, compare this PE ratio with one calculated using last years audited earnings results, and you should have a good general idea of the company’s stock price behaviour in relation to its earnings. So in the case of TSH, although it has posted year-on-year growth consistently and showed increasing turnover year-to-date, its very low 4th qrtr results has dragged down its yearly earnings and brought its PE ratio from 6 (based on audited earnings) to 16(based on most recent quarter results)! So to me even though it seems to be well supported at these levels, it already seems expensive and I am happy to offload it in our current environment.
Tenaga
PS I am also thinking of getting rid of Tenaga, which is fundamentally a bad company buoyed by short term positive factors, but it is also one of the better performers in my portfolio (it is one of my “technically supported” trades) which has helped protect it during the recent downfall. But I am now toying with the idea of switching to cash and using my profits from that trade to maintain exposure by purchasing warrants (as suggested by investssmart here – I have to give him credit for coming up with this idea before me).
That’s all folks! See you all in the week.
