Archive for January 5th, 2007

Investment Basics: A Quick and Dirty Test To Evaluate A Company (Using VADS)

January 5, 2007

I’m going to post a pdf of spreadsheet I have adapted* which I use to quickly evaluate companies. This baby looks at a company’s numbers and scores them according to a number of criteria to do with profitability, cash flow, operating efficiency etc. In total there are 13 tests and anything scoring 10 or above is a company worth following in my book. Now this doesn’t mean that I will automatically buy the company, it just means that I will put it on my watchlist and buy it when it becomes cheap enough. This is because investing does not involve only picking good companies, it also involves buying and selling them at the right time. Also please note that this test does not look at the external environment which is essential to determine growth prospects. However they provide a quick way of weeding out weak companies and identifying strong ones so that you can spend more of your time researching good companies.

I will post these up every now and then when I find a company which scores 10 or above and add it to my watchlist.

vads05-01-07.pdf

*from Harry Domash’s book “Fire your Stock Analyst” (he calls is a ‘fiscal fitness’ test)

Trading: Contrarian view on the KLSE…

January 5, 2007

I don’t know a single money manager who dares to short the market right now, but I’m going to stick my neck out and say that the KLCI is about to run into some serious headwinds. If you take a look at the below picture and study the volume you will see that when the previous high was broken back in October, the big money literally piled in and propelled the market to its current high. After new year a huge drop off in volumes ensued, producing a higher high on weaker volume which is red flag in my book (note also that RSIs have also demonstrated another negative divergence). The good news is that volume has returned in the last couple of days, but the question is will it be sufficient to drive the market up another leg? I am standing aside for now and waiting for it to come back to some vague support levels I have drawn in before adding on to more positions…

klse-05-01-07.png

Don’t things always look so clear in your rear view mirror….